125 миллионов энергетических нищих в еврозоне

Европарламент подготовил резолюцию по "изменению климата", на мой взгляд документ мега важный, потому что вполне возможно повестка "борьбы за климат" может стать определяющей как минимум для еврозоны на ближайшие пару десятилетий. Также необходимо понимать, что с учетом размеров планируемых ассигнований и комплексности концепта, речь не только и нисколько про климат

"Борьба" это три в одном:

- заклинание шаманов принести жертву, чтобы не пошел дождь (или пошел),

- способ финансирования науки и прогресса как такового (что важно пока вместо военных),

- новая объединяющая идея по круче крестовых походов для того, чтобы нести свет в мировые массы.

Пока софтпауэр, но судя по настроению может дойти и до хард.

Итак, ниже собственно манифест - 2^6 пункта, с подстрочными комментариями:

1.Welcomes the publication of the Commission communication ‘A Clean Planet for all –A European strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy’, which underlines the opportunities and challenges that the transformation towards a net-zero greenhouse gas economy brings to European citizens and Europe’s economy, and sets the basis for a wide debate involving EU institutions, national parliaments, the business sector, non-governmental organisations, cities, and communities, as well as citizens; endorses the objective of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 and urges the Member States to do the same as part of the Future of Europe debate at the special EU summit in Sibiu in May 2019; calls on the Member States to commit to the required ambition in order to achieve this goal;

Цель - экономика с 0 выбросов парниковых газов в 2050 году - вовлекаем всех - правительства, бизнюков, муниципалов и обычных граждан.

2.Acknowledges that theserious risks of climate change are at the heart of our citizens’ concerns; welcomes the fact that people across Europe, in particular younger generations, are becoming increasingly active in demonstrating for climate justice; welcomes the calls from these activists for greater ambition and swift action in order not to overshoot the 1.5°C climate limit; believes that national, regional and local governments, as well as the EU, should heed these calls;

Молодежь, Активисты - приветствуют движуху не выхода за 1,5 градусный климатический лимит.

3.Highlights that European citizens already face direct impacts of climate change; underlines that, according to the European Environment Agency, average annual losses caused by weather and climate-related extremes in the Union amounted to around EUR12.8 billion between 2010 and 2016, and that, if no furtheraction is taken, climate damages in the EU could amount to at least EUR190 billion by 2080, equivalent to a net welfare loss of 1.8% of its current GDP; emphasises that under a high emissions scenario, annual costs from flooding in the EU could rise to EUR 1 trillion by 2100 and that weather-related disasters could affect about two-thirds of European citizens by 2100, compared with 5% today; further stresses that, according to the European Environment Agency, 50% of the populated areas in the EU will suffer from severe water scarcity by 2030;

Европейцы уже почувствовали изменение климата на своих шкурах, с 2010 по 2016 - потери 12,8 миллиардов евров.

К 2080 ущерб достигнет 190 миллиардов. По сценарию "выбросов" цена наводнений может возрасти до 1 триллиона к 2100 году.

и проблема затронет 2/3 жителей ЕС ( в сравнении с 5% сейчас).

Тут стоит добавить, что в принципе планку поднимают достаточно высоко - цель оправдывает средства - так можно и побомбить слегка инфраструктуру третьего мира, чтобы эти самые выбросы снизить (это если по хорошему не поймут конечно).

Дальше идут пункты про отчет "1,5 градуса":.

После того как запугали, можно немного обрадовать:

11.Notes with concern that the EU’s energy import dependence currently stands at around 55%; highlights that under a net-zero emissions scenario this would fall to 20% by 2050, which would have a positive impact on the EU’s trade balance and geopolitical position; notes that the cumulative savings in fossil fuel import costs between 2031 and 2050 would be around EUR 2-3 trillion, which could be spent on other priorities for European citizens;

Снижение зависимости от импорта топлива - экономия 2-3 трилиона евров с 2031-2050, которые можно потратить на другие нужды граждан Европы.

Вот здесь интересно - социальные аспекты - 2,1 миллиона рабочих мест к 2050 году именно под "нуль-экономику".

15.Stresses the numerous co-benefits a climate neutral society will have on public health, including in terms of savings on the cost of care and a lighter burden on insurance and public health systems, as well as on the general well-being of European citizens thanks to enhanced biodiversity, a reduction in air pollution and mitigated exposure to pollutants; notes that under such a scenario, health damages would be reduced by around EUR 200 billion per year;

Снижение угроз здоровью жителей, за счет более лучшей экологии - 200 миллиардов евров в год.

16.Stresses the importance of creating a just transition fund, especially for the regions most affected by decarbonisation, such as coal mining regions, combined with a general consideration of the social impacts of existing climate funding; highlights, in this regard, the need for wide public acceptance of the long-term strategy, given the transformations needed in some sectors;

17.Underlines that more action and greater efforts towards a clean energy transition would be required in certain EU regions, such as coal regions; reiterates, in this context, its appeal for a specific allocation of EUR 4,8 billion for a new Just Energy Transition Fund to be introduced into the Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027 in order to support workers and communities in such regions adversely affected by this transition;

4,8 миллиарда евров угольной [ https://romansmirnov.org/161 ] мафии . 

18.Underlines the need for an anticipatory approach to ensure a just transition for EU citizens and to support the regions most affected by decarbonisation; believes that Europe’s climate transition must be ecologically, economically and socially sustainable;
stresses that, in order to ensure political acceptance by all citizens, it is important to take into account the distributional effects of climate-related and decarbonisation policies, specifically on people with low incomes; considers, therefore, that social impacts should be taken into full consideration in all EU and national climate policies with a view to ensuring a social and ecological transformation in Europe; emphasises, in this respect, that tailor-made and sufficiently funded strategies at all levels will need to be designed on the basis of inclusive processes and in close collaboration with local and regional public authorities, trade unions, educational institutions, civil society organisations and the private sector, to ensure that fair and equal opportunities are offered to all European citizens in this transition;

19.Recalls that approximately 50 to 125 million European citizens are currently at risk of energy poverty1; highlights that the energy transition can have a disproportionate effect on people with low incomes and further increase energy poverty; calls on the Member States to assess the number of households in energy poverty in their integrated national energy and climate plans and to take follow-up actions if necessary, as required by the Governance Regulation; calls on the Member States to take forward-looking action to ensure a just energy transition and access to energy for all EU citizens;

Вот это интересно - напоминают, что от 50 до 125 миллионов европейцев сейчас в зоне риска "энергетической нищеты" и что дальнейший "энергопереход" приведет к дальнейшему увеличению этой нищеты среди людей с низкими доходами.

Вот еще - подчеркивается цель развития железных дорог вместо авиасообщения.

32.Underlines that in order to achieve climate neutrality for the EU economy as a whole, all sectors must contribute, including international aviation and shipping; notes that the Commission’s analysis shows that the current global targets and measures envisaged by the International Maritime Organisation and the International Civil Aviation Organisation respectively, even if fully implemented, fall short of the necessary emissions reductions, and that significant further action consistent with the economy-wide objective of net-zero emissions is needed; highlights the need for investments in zero-and low-carbon technologies and fuels in these sectors; calls on the Commission to put the ‘polluter pays’ principle into practice in these sectors; recalls that GHG emissions from international shipping are projected to increase by as much as 250% by 2050; welcomes the fact that the international shipping sector has set itself an absolute reduction target for GHG emissions; notes with concern the lack of progress as regards the translation of this target into short-and medium-term measures and other concrete actions; notes the different burden borne by different modes of transport; calls for the increased ETS revenues to be used to promote environmentally friendly modes of transport such as buses or railways;

Еще по транспорту - пересаживаемся с автомобилей, не на электромобили, а в принципе (индивидуальный транспорт это роскошь)

33.Notes that approximately 60% of the world’s methane is emitted by sources such as agriculture, landfills and wastewater, and the production and pipeline transport of fossil fuels; recalls that methane is a potent GHG with a 100-year global warming potential, 28 times more powerful than CO21;reiterates its call on the Commission to explore as soon as possible policy options for rapidly addressing methane emissions as part of a Union strategic plan for methane, and to present legislative proposals to Parliament and the Council to that effect;

60% выбросов метана это - сельхозка и прч, как то аккуратно этот вопрос обходят, сконцентрировашись на "ископаемом" топливе и транспорте.

Так ну все хватит, переходим к делу.

41.Points out that achieving a net-zero GHG economy will require considerable additional investments in the EU’s energy system and related infrastructure compared to today’s baseline, in the range of EUR 175 to 290 billion a year;

Дополнительные расходы вложений в инфраструктуру на достижение нульэкономики - 175-290 миллиардов в год.

Хотят тоже поклевать немного из кормушки “горизонта” (общеевропейская программа поддержки науки)

58.Calls for rapid implementation of the EU ETS Innovation Fund and for the start of the first call for proposals in 2019, in order to boost investments in the demonstration of low-carbon industrial breakthrough technologies in a wide array of sectors, not only electricity production, but also district heating and industrial processes; calls for the 2021-2027 multiannual financial framework and its programmes to be fully consistent with the Paris Agreement;

59.Considers that in order for the Union to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 at the latest, substantial private investments need to be mobilised; believes that this will require long-term planning and regulatory stability and predictability for investors and, accordingly, due consideration in future EU regulations; stresses, therefore, that the implementation of the Sustainable Finance Action Plan adopted in March 2018 should be prioritised;

60.Considers that the 2021-2027 MFF should, before its adoption, be evaluated in the light of the objective to reach a climate neutral economy by 2050, and that a standard test to ensure that expenditure under the EU budget is climate-proof must be established;

61.Regrets the fact that fossil fuel subsidies are still increasing and amount to around EUR55 billion per year1; calls for the EU and the Member States to immediately phase out all European and national fossil fuel subsidies;

Призыв сократить субсидирование любых видов "ископаемого топлива".

62.Stresses the importance of a just transition to a carbon neutral economy and calls on the Member States to put in place appropriate policies and financing in this regard; underlines that EU spending from relevant funds could provide additional support where appropriate;The role of consumers and the circular economy

63.Highlights the significant impact of behavioural change in achieving GHG emission reductions; calls on the Commission to explore policy options as soon as possible, including on environmental taxation, in order to encourage behavioural change; underlines the importance of bottom-up initiatives such as the Covenant of Mayors in promoting behavioural change;

64.Underlines that a very large part of energy use, and therefore GHG emissions, is tied directly to the acquisition, processing, transport, conversion, use and disposal of resources; stresses that very significant savings could be made at each stage in the resource management chain; highlights, therefore, that increasing resource productivity through improved efficiency and reducing resource waste through measures such as 1Energy Prices and Costs in Europe, pp. 10-11.

Если кто то думает, что это все России и тем более потенциального СССР 2.0 не касается, на мой взгляд, он глубоко заблуждается.

Например свежайшая новость - мегазнаковая структура ЕБРР [ https://romansmirnov.org/97 ] возобновила работу в неньке

Минский водоканал - 168 миллионов евро - https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/procurement/p-pn-190321c.html

Проект "чистая вода" в Витебске - https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/procurement/p-pn-190318a.html

Да и здесь у нас никто особо не уходил, интеграция с европейским, транснациональным бизнесом максимально возможная.

Соответственно борьба не только за "климат" , но и внутри этой повестки, может дать отголоски и у нас. 

По представленному манифесту уже началось движение - https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-strategy-2050/news/summit-leak-reveals-eu-rift-on-climate-change/

Против "ассигнований" - Германия, Польша, Венгрия, Чехия, за Netherlands, Luxembourg, Spain, Portugal, Finland, Sweden and Denmark.

Что в принципе объяснимо двумя вещами - центральная и восточная Европа (как и Россия) от потепления вряд ли пострадает, скорее наоборот, в отличии от "пиратов" с "викингами" и второй момент - спонсором банкета тоже понятно дело кому придеться выступить.

Так что вся эта тема может и не взлететь.

Нашим "энергодеятелям" очень бы хотелось конечно пособить комунибудь в этой возне, но деградация экспертной среды дошла до того, что собственно и внятную позицию то сформулировать некому поэтому остается только плыть в форватере. 

Еще свежайшая новость на тему - забурбулили "промышленники" из РСПП https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3915489